Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Feb 2004
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004sptz.prop..223a&link_type=abstract
Spitzer Proposal ID #223
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
The Deep Impact mission, the eighth mission in NASA's Discovery Program, will launch on 30 Dec 2004 and will impact the nucleus of comet 9P/Tempel 1 on 4 July 2005. Delivering an impactor to a cometary nucleus and observing the results of the impact is a challenging task. Mission success depends critically on the ability of the DI spacecraft to navigate to the comet. Despite robust targeting algorithms, large uncertainties in size, shape, albedo distribution, and rotational state significantly degrade the probability that the impactor will land in a sunlit portion of the surface that is observable from the flyby. The uncertainties in the size, axial ratio, and rotational state further jeopardize the ability of the flyby spacecraft to point its High Resolution Instrument at the actual impact site with sufficient precision to ensure it is in the field of view. Current estimate of the comet's size using Keck LWS observations are uncertain by 50% and they have provided no information on the distribution of albedo. Although uncertainty in the phasing of the optical lightcurve represents a large part of that error, there is also a significant uncertainty due to the combination of low SNR in the data from Keck and the limited spectral range over which data could be obtained. In order to improve our estimate of the size and shape of the nucleus of Tempel 1, we must obtain data with much higher SNR and with one-hour time resolution over a significant portion of the rotation light curve when the comet is inactive. We must determine whether or not there are large variations in albedo across the surface to order to ensure that the rotational lightcurve from optical data can be used to predict the convex hull of the actual shape. Tempel 1 is available in only one Spitzer viewing widow before it is expected to be close enough to the sun to become active, namely the window from 27 Feb through 29 April 2004, before the first GO observing period, at 3.7 AU from the Sun. The expect peak thermal flux will be ~10mJy at 20 microns, e
A'Hearn Michael
Belton Michael
Fernandez Yanga
Groussin Olivier
Lisse Carey
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