Toward the Next Solar Maximum: Magnetosphere Activity Forecast

Details Toward the Next Solar Maximum: Magnetosphere Activity Forecast Toward the Next Solar Maximum: Magnetosphere Activity Forecast

Jun 1997

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1997rcrl...43..313s&link_type=abstract

Review of the Communications Research Laboratory, vol. 43, p. 313

Mathematics

Logic

Aerospace Environments, Earth Magnetosphere, Magnetospheric Instability, Solar Activity, Weather Forecasting, Solar Wind, Real Time Operation, Solar Activity Effects, Interplanetary Space

Scientific paper

Variations in the solar wind cause disturbances in the earth's magnetosphere. The magnetosphere disturbances have a significant impact on human activities in space and on the ground. The space environment, particularly near the geosynchronous orbit where a number of satellites serve to support modern society, is one of the major concerns for satellite operators. On the ground, magnetospheric storms and substorms cause a wide variety of problems in short-wave communication, navigation, and technological systems such as the power grid. The CRL's "Space Weather Forecast Program" aims to improve the forecast of magnetosphere disturbances before the next solar maximum period (around 2000). In magnetosphere forecasting, it is important to understand the connection between the sun's surface and the magnetosphere. We are far from a complete understanding of this connection. The recent flood of observation data on the sun, interplanetary space, and the magnetosphere will enable us to find the empirical relationships between the causes and effects more easily than before. A comprehensive morphology is a good starting point for physical understanding, and also useful for forecasting. The ACE satellite, which will deliver real-time solar wind data continuously, will improve our ability to identify the current status of the magnetosphere activity and our understanding of the solar wind and magnetosphere coupling, through the use of a forecast model of the magnetosphere.

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