Space weather specification and geospace forecasting (Invited)

Mathematics – Logic

Scientific paper

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[2722] Magnetospheric Physics / Forecasting, [2784] Magnetospheric Physics / Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, [7934] Space Weather / Impacts On Technological Systems, [7984] Space Weather / Space Radiation Environment

Scientific paper

Recent national and international space science programs have made a concerted effort to study activity on the Sun, the propagation of transients from the Sun to near-Earth space, energy coupling into the magnetosphere, and its redistribution and deposition in the upper and middle atmosphere. Extreme solar, geomagnetic, and solar wind conditions can be observed by a large array of satellites and ground-based sensors. Several types of space weather-related concerns have been identified in recent years and we examine examples of space weather-induced spacecraft (and ground-based) anomalies and failures that affect both civilian and military systems. In this context, we discuss near-term plans to consolidate and integrate results from these various programs and campaigns. An important component of this concerted community effort is to propose technical and operational solutions to space weather problems that can be achieved in the next 5-10 years. This presentation will focus on new scientific understanding that is needed for successful space weather forecasting and will describe actions that can help assure a good future integrated space weather program. Particular emphasis will be placed on what observations and models will be needed within the geospace domain to enable successful forecasting capabilities.

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