Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Dec 1979
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1979icar...40..345s&link_type=abstract
Icarus, vol. 40, Dec. 1979, p. 345-349.
Mathematics
Probability
20
Asteroids, Orbital Elements, Orbital Mechanics, Planetary Evolution, Statistical Analysis, Comets, Cosmology, Numerical Integration, Position Errors, Solar System, Asteroids, Chiron Asteroid, Orbits, History, Evolution, Saturn, Data, Statistical Analysis, Origin, Perturbations, Comparisons, Distance, Short Period Comets, Satellites, Monte Carlo Method
Scientific paper
Chiron's orbit was numerically integrated from 6000 BC to AD 18,000. Since Chiron often approaches Saturn closely, closer than 1 AU, the evolution of Chiron's orbit obtained by an accurate integration is only of statistical significance. Slightly different starting values may yield a completely different orbit. Therefore, a cloud of nine variational orbits surrounding Chiron's orbit was also integrated numerically in order to get an idea about possible evolutionary paths. The calculations support the conjecture of Oikawa and Everhart (1979) that the dynamical evolution of Chiron's orbit is with a certain statistical probability similar to orbits of short-period comets.
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