The occurrence rate of magnetospheric-substorm onsets - Random and periodic substorms

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Earth Magnetosphere, Magnetic Storms, Periodic Variations, Solar Wind, Transearth Injection, Flux Density, Geosynchronous Orbits, Polar Substorms

Scientific paper

Particle-injection events are monitored on three geosynchronous satellites to determine the occurrences of magnetospheric substorms: for every consecutive pair of substorms found, the time interval Delta t between substorm onsets is determined. In this manner, 1001 values of Delta t are obtained. A statistical analysis of the Delta t values finds that the most-probable time between substorms onsets is Delta t about 2.75 hours: this is interpreted to be the period between substorms when substorms occur cyclically. The statistical analysis of the Delta t values also finds a random probability for the occurrence of substorms with a mean time between random substorms of about 5 hours: it is speculated that this random occurrence may be caused by a property of the solar wind that varies randomly with an approximately 5-hour time scale. About 1500 substorms occur per year: about half are periodic and about half occur randomly.

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