Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Mar 1993
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1993jgr....98.3807b&link_type=abstract
Journal of Geophysical Research (ISSN 0148-0227), vol. 98, no. A3, p. 3807-3813.
Mathematics
Probability
108
Earth Magnetosphere, Magnetic Storms, Periodic Variations, Solar Wind, Transearth Injection, Flux Density, Geosynchronous Orbits, Polar Substorms
Scientific paper
Particle-injection events are monitored on three geosynchronous satellites to determine the occurrences of magnetospheric substorms: for every consecutive pair of substorms found, the time interval Delta t between substorm onsets is determined. In this manner, 1001 values of Delta t are obtained. A statistical analysis of the Delta t values finds that the most-probable time between substorms onsets is Delta t about 2.75 hours: this is interpreted to be the period between substorms when substorms occur cyclically. The statistical analysis of the Delta t values also finds a random probability for the occurrence of substorms with a mean time between random substorms of about 5 hours: it is speculated that this random occurrence may be caused by a property of the solar wind that varies randomly with an approximately 5-hour time scale. About 1500 substorms occur per year: about half are periodic and about half occur randomly.
Belian Richard D.
Borovsky Joseph E.
Nemzek Robert J.
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