Predicting the Properties of Coronal Mass Ejections at 1AU.

Details Predicting the Properties of Coronal Mass Ejections at 1AU. Predicting the Properties of Coronal Mass Ejections at 1AU.

Dec 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002agufmsh61a0432o&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2002, abstract #SH61A-0432

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

7500 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy, 7513 Coronal Mass Ejections

Scientific paper

Remote observations of CMEs at the Sun are combined with in-situ observations of their associated ICMEs at 1AU. The feasibility of space weather prediction on the basis of coronal measurements is investigated. Current models of CME arrival times (Gopalswamy et al., 2000) assume a constant deceleration of the ejecta from the corona to 1AU, and do not explicitly include the effect of the ambient solar wind speed. Furthermore, the estimation of the speed of a CME along the Earth-Sun line is subject to severe projection effects. A comparison of the effect of these factors on the predicted 1AU arrival times is made, and the importance of the speed of an ICME in the solar wind frame is highlighted for prediction of the magnetic properties of an ICME.

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