Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Apr 1921
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1921natur.107..234g&link_type=abstract
Nature, Volume 107, Issue 2686, pp. 234-235 (1921).
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
THE reported failure of Prof. Goddard to obtain pecuniary support for his project to discharge a giant rocket at the moon leads me to ask a question which astronomers may answer. Why is it that no observer has ever reported the descent of a meteor upon the surface of our satellite? It seems reasonable to suppose that meteoric falls must occur there as upon the surface of the earth. According to the accepted estimate, the earth receives about 20,000,000 meteorites per diem. If that holds good, mutatis mutandis for the moon, our luminary must receive about 2,000,000 in twenty-four hours. The great majority of these would necessarily be invisible. One-half of the number would fall on her averted face. Of the remainder more would fall during sunlight than during the hours of darkness. Of those that fell during hours of darkness the greater number would be concealed by terrestrial cloud. Of those that were not so concealed one-half would fall on the illuminated part of the moon's disc, and, perhaps, be rendered invisible by the lunar brightness. It is easy to see that large abatements must therefore be made from the number of falls if we wish to estimate the probability of making a successful observation. This consideration has a bearing, by the way, on the reasonableness of expecting to be able to witness the arrival of Prof. Goddard's projected rocket if the aim were good and a hit secured; but that is by the way.
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