Activity level prediction for the 2002 Leonids

Computer Science

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

We present here a new method to evaluate the level of a meteor storm, and applied it to the 2002 Leonids. By simulating the ejection from the parent comet and the orbit of the particles, and taking the advantage of the measure of [A f rho], we have computed a "weight" for each of them (that is an indicator of the number each particle is supposed to represent). Looking at impacting particles close enough to the Earth, and calibrating the density computed, we predict that the ZHR of the 2002 Leonids will be 3200 for the 1866 stream, and 2600 for the 1767 stream, with an uncertainty of about 200.

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