Predictions of a Global Climate Change and Cycle on Jupiter

Details Predictions of a Global Climate Change and Cycle on Jupiter Predictions of a Global Climate Change and Cycle on Jupiter

Dec 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003agufm.p51c0462m&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2003, abstract #P51C-0462

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0343 Planetary Atmospheres (5405, 5407, 5409, 5704, 5705, 5707), 1600 Global Change (New Category), 1620 Climate Dynamics (3309), 5707 Atmospheres: Structure And Dynamics, 6220 Jupiter

Scientific paper

We predict that most of Jupiter's large vortices, similar to (but not including) the Great Red Spot, will soon disappear due to vortex mergers. This will cause global temperature changes of ˜10oK. Within a decade, several of Jupiter's westward jet streams (there are 12) will form waves. They will grow, break, roll-up and re-populate Jupiter with new vortices. These dynamics should be visible from earth as the break-up of a circumferential band of clouds into ``spots''. The new vortices will be similar to those that were observed during most of the 20th century. For ˜60 years they will change only slowly, then abruptly bunch together. Shortly afterward, most will disappear by merging with other vortices. The cycle described above will repeat with a ˜70-year time scale, with many of the events detectable from earth or by satellite. The formation of the White Oval ``spots'' in 1939 began the current global climate cycle, and their mergers in 1997--2000 signaled the beginning of its end. Our predictions are based on fundamental vortex dynamics rather than global circulation models.

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