Statistical coupling between solar wind conditions and extreme geomagnetically induced current events

Details Statistical coupling between solar wind conditions and extreme geomagnetically induced current events Statistical coupling between solar wind conditions and extreme geomagnetically induced current events

Dec 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007agufmsm34a..03p&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007, abstract #SM34A-03

Statistics

1515 Geomagnetic Induction, 2134 Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, 2407 Auroral Ionosphere (2704), 7904 Geomagnetically Induced Currents, 7959 Models

Scientific paper

Recent advances in global MHD-based modeling of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) from upstream solar wind (L1 observations) to the ground have opened new avenues for physics-based space weather forecasting. More specifically, Pulkkinen et al . (2007, Annales Geophysicae) showed that global MHD was able to generate realistic, in terms of spatiotemporal structure, GIC fluctuations having amplitudes comparable to the observed values. However, the situation is significantly more demanding if heliospheric models instead of L1 observations are used to generate the magnetospheric/GIC activity. Although current MHD-based solar wind models are capable of producing realistic large-scale behavior of the solar wind, for example, the turbulent interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) fluctuations are missing to a large degree. This obviously poses a problem for GIC modeling as the turbulent nature of IMF is possibly one of the main sources for large GIC. In this work a model for statistical coupling between hourly solar wind parameters and maximum GIC values observed on the ground is constructed. OMNI and IMAGE magnetometer array data from 1995-2006 are facilitated in the construction of the model. It is shown that there is a clear statistical coupling between the solar wind parameters, most importantly solar wind convective electric field and maximum GIC. The established connection between GIC and large-scale solar wind features enables new strategies for GIC forecasting even in the (partial) absence of information about turbulent IMF. In one possible strategy one would use heliospheric MHD models to generate large-scale solar wind features at L1, which would then be used to generate statistical estimate for GIC. In this paper the generation and the usage of the statistics in space weather forecasting and in other contexts is discussed.

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