Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Dec 2007
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007agufmsh34a..03h&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007, abstract #SH34A-03
Mathematics
Probability
2111 Ejecta, Driver Gases, And Magnetic Clouds, 2159 Plasma Waves And Turbulence
Scientific paper
The solar-wind driven magnetosphere-ionosphere system is a complex dynamical system in that it exhibits (1) sensitivity to initial conditions; (2) multiple space-time scales; (3) bifurcation sequences with hysteresis in transitions between attractors; and (4) noncompositionality. This system is modeled by WINDMI--a network of eight coupled ordinary differential equations which describe the transfer of power from the solar wind through the geomagnetic tail, the ionosphere, and ring current in the system. The model captures both storm activity from the plasma ring current energy, which yields a model Dst index result, and substorm activity from the region 1 field aligned current, yielding model AL and AU results. The input to the model is the solar wind driving voltage calculated from ACE solar wind parameter data, which has a regular coherent component and broad-band turbulent component. Cross correlation functions of the input-output data time series are computed and the conditional probability density function for the occurrence of substorms given earlier IMF conditions are derived. The model shows a high probability of substorms for solar activity that contains a coherent, rotating IMF with magnetic cloud features. For a theoretical model of the imprint of solar convection on the solar wind we have used the Lorenz attractor (Horton et al., PoP, 1999, doi:10.10631.873683) as a solar wind driver. The work is supported by NSF grant ATM-0638480.
Horton Wendell
Mays Leila M.
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