Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
May 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agusmsp54a..08h&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2008, abstract #SP54A-08
Mathematics
Probability
7519 Flares, 7522 Helioseismology, 7524 Magnetic Fields
Scientific paper
The Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) is now routinely producing several data products that are useful for space weather predictions. These products are one-minute cadence full-disk magnetograms obtained continually; ten-miniute averages of these magnetograms; one-hour cadence synoptic magnetic field maps and potential field source-surface extrapolations; and twelve-hour far-side maps that show the presence of large active regions. Most of these these products are made available over the Internet in near-real time. In addition, we are developing flare predictors based on subsurface vorticity obtained from helioseismic ring diagrams in conjunction with surface magnetic field observations. We find that, when both the subsurface vorticity and the surface magnetic field are above certain thresholds for a specific active region, then that active region has a very high probability of producing vigorous flare activity. We will present the quantitative results for this predictor and also report on progress developing a predictor based on the temporal evolution of the vorticity.
Gonzalez-Hernandez Irene
Harvey Jack W.
Hill F. F.
Komm Rudi
Petrie Gordon
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