Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jan 2011
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011aas...21721005c&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, AAS Meeting #217, #210.05; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 43, 2011
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
Our work started with explaining the storms in the Pacific, known as El Nino and La Nina. It was the alignment of sun and moon, pulling together about twice a month. Often a solar eclipse path will show more clearly where the bodies are. Then, during this last year, the same point of view has surprisingly shed light on the problem of earthquake prediction. The events which caught our attention began with the El Nino storm of February 23, 1998. Since we are solar eclipse watchers, we noticed the long eclipse path of February 26th, 1998, which ran through Panama and parts of Columbia and Venezuela. Calculations showed that the gravity of the sun would add 46% of tidal force to that of the moon. Descriptions of this storm (and others) have convinced us that the coming together of sun and moon is the driving force behind the storms known as the El Nino and La Nina in the Pacific Ocean.
Then in 2004, we had the earthquake in Indonesia which produced a great tsunami. And we head from and read about the effects of great current changes, or tides, which can trigger earthquakes. So far, the tide scientists say that tidal forces affect only shallow earthquakes. But is there now an increase in depth in ocean, or in frequency, due to global warming?
Earhquake specialists had already calculated there is a greater than 90% probability of the major earthquake occurring within the next 30 years. This is for Los Angeles and San Francisco, and a similar situation for Japan. Now we can close in on what days the probabilities are higher.
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