Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Dec 2001
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agufmsm42a0828t&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2001, abstract #SM42A-0828
Mathematics
Probability
2164 Solar Wind Plasma, 2731 Magnetosphere: Outer
Scientific paper
We used the superposed epoch method to reconstruct a typical behavior of solar wind parameters before and during strong isolated geomagnetic storms. For this analysis we used 130 such geomagnetic storms during the period of 1966-2000. The results obtained show that a typical disturbance in the solar wind responsible for geomagnetic storm generation is associated with the propagation of high-speed plasma flow compressing ambient solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) ahead of this high-speed flow. This gives rise to enhanced magnetic field, plasma density, plasma turbulence and temperature, which start to increase several hours before geomagnetic storm onset. However, the IMF Bz (responsible for geomagnetic storm onset) starts to increase significantly later (approximately 6-7 hours after maximal variations in plasma density and IMF By). The time delay between peaks in IMF Bz and plasma density (and IMF By) may be a result of draping of high-speed plasma streams with ambient magnetic field in the (z-y) plane as discussed by some authors. This leads to an increase first in plasma density and IMF By ahead of a high-speed flow, which is followed by an increase in IMF Bz. This simple model allows us to predict that the probability for geomagnetic storm generation should depend on which edge of a high-speed flow encounters the Earth's magnetosphere. The probability for geomagnetic storm generation is expected to be maximal when the flow encounters the magnetosphere by its north-west edge for negative IMF By and south-west edge for positive IMF By.
Lyatsky W. B.
Tan Aihong
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