Study of Predictability of STOA Model For Magnetic Storms Using Data From Ichon Solar Radio Observatory

Details Study of Predictability of STOA Model For Magnetic Storms Using Data From Ichon Solar Radio Observatory Study of Predictability of STOA Model For Magnetic Storms Using Data From Ichon Solar Radio Observatory

Dec 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agufmsh31a0693c&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2001, abstract #SH31A-0693

Other

2139 Interplanetary Shocks, 2788 Storms And Substorms, 7513 Coronal Mass Ejections, 7519 Flares, 7534 Radio Emissions

Scientific paper

The shock wave launched from the solar coronal activity is crucial and closely related to the geomagnetic storm occurrence. The propagation speed of the shock can be determined based on the drift rate of Type II solar radio burst and a model atmosphere of the corona. These values are used as inputs in the STOA model (Shock Time of Arrival; Smith et al., 2000) which can provide predictions on geomagnetic storm occurrence. In this work, we have attempted to improve such predictability of the STOA model using the data from Solar Radio Observatory at Ichon, Korea. In order to estimate the possible errors in the input velocity values of the coronal shock, we have also used the similar data sets from other observatories including Culgoora, Hiraiso, and RSTN sites. Also, We have estimated the dependence of the shock speed on the distance from the Sun. Further, it was also checked if the IMF structure near the earth can seriously affect the shock arrival and triggering of the storm. Finally, the errors between the STOA model prediction and the actual storm occurrence determined from the Dst index were estimated.

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