Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Sep 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009dps....41.2906c&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, DPS meeting #41, #29.06
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
The late Steve Ostro, whose scientific interests in Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) primarily related to his planetary radar research in the 1980s, soon became an expert on the impact hazard. He quickly realized that radar provided perspectives on close-approaching NEAs that were both very precise as well as complementary to traditional astrometry, enabling good predictions of future orbits and collision probabilities extending for centuries into the future. He also was among the few astronomers who considered the profound issues raised by this newly recognized hazard and by early suggestions of how to mitigate the hazard. With Carl Sagan, Ostro articulated the "deflection dilemma" and other potential low-probability but real dangers of mitigation technologies that might be more serious than the low-probability impact hazard itself. Yet Ostro maintained a deep interest in developing responsible mitigation technologies, in educating the public about the nature of the impact hazard, and in learning more about the population of threatening bodies, especially using the revealing techniques of delay-doppler radar mapping of NEAs and their satellites.
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