The Ascent Study - Understanding the Market Environment for the Follow-on to the Space Shuttle

Computer Science

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Scientific paper

The ASCENT Study - Understanding the Market Environment for the Follow-on to NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, awarded a contract (base plus option amounting to twenty months of analysis) to Futron Corporation in June 2001 to investigate the market environment, and explore the price elasticity attributes, relevant for the introduction of the Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (the follow-on to the Space Shuttle) in the second decade of this century. This work is known as the ASCENT Study (Analysis of Space Concepts Enabled by New Transportation) and data collection covering a total of 42 different sectors took place during 2001. Modeling and forecasting activities for 26 of these markets (all of them international in nature) have been taking place throughout 2002, and the final results of the ASCENT Study, which include 20 year forecasts, are due by the end of January, 2003. This paper describes the markets being analyzed for the ASCENT Study, and includes some preliminary findings in terms of launch vehicle demand during the next 20 years, broken down by mass class and mission type. Amongst these markets are the potential public space travel opportunities. When completed, the final report of the ASCENT Study is expected to represent a significant reference document for all business development, financing and planning activities in the space industry for some time to come. One immediate use will be as a key factor in determining the cargo capability and launch rates to be used for designing the follow-on to the Space Shuttle. The Study will also provide NASA with a quantified indication of the extent to which the lower cost to orbit, made possible by a new class of launch vehicle, will bring into being new markets.

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