Long-term dynamical evolution of the minor planet (4179) Toutatis

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy

Scientific paper

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Planetary Evolution, Dynamic Models, Planetary Orbits, Liapunov Functions, Chaos, Astrometry

Scientific paper

A total of 332 optical astrometric observations obtained over 1934-1993 have yielded an estimate of the orbit of the minor planet (4179) Toutatis which, upon numerical integration within the framework of several dynamical models, is found to be extremely chaotic due to close approaches to the terrestrial planets rather than its 3:1 resonance with Jupiter and weaker 3:1 resonance with the earth. Close approach distances and estimated uncertainties for all events which can be accurately predicted are presented. A 0.011 AU approach to the earth is predicted for 2004.

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