The orbital evolution of P/Machholz 2 and its debris

Details The orbital evolution of P/Machholz 2 and its debris The orbital evolution of P/Machholz 2 and its debris

Jun 1996

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1996mnras.280.1201a&link_type=abstract

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Volume 280, Issue 4, pp. 1201-1209.

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

4

Methods: Numerical, Comets: General, Comets: Individual: P/1994 P1, Meteors, Meteoroids

Scientific paper

We investigate the orbital evolution of the observed components of fragmented comet P/1994 P1 (Machholz 2), and of plausible debris orbits. The cometary orbit is currently quite stable because of its proximity to the 9:4 jovian mean motion resonance and its avoidance of Jupiter. Departures from this stable orbit could occur due to close approaches to one of the terrestrial planets, in particular the Earth. The observed influence of non-gravitational forces upon the brightest component precludes any definitive knowledge of when the comet fragmented, but the evidence suggests that this was within the last two decades, and possibly very soon before its discovery. The most recent intersections between the cometary and terrestrial orbits occurred in two epochs in the 18th and 19th centuries, and we calculate theoretical radiants for the meteor showers which might have been observed then, although for various reasons such observations are unlikely even if P/Machholz 2 had an associated stream at that stage. The next epochs in which such intersections occur are over a millennium away, although some meteoroids ejected with high speeds could meet the Earth within a few centuries. No meteor storms are to be expected. The comet is found to be in an orbit which brings it close to being an octuple-crosser of the Earth, such that differential orbital evolution of the meteoroids could result in eight distinct showers.

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