Cosmic Ray Intensity vs. Solar Coronal Source Flux: Is There a Simple Relation?

Details Cosmic Ray Intensity vs. Solar Coronal Source Flux: Is There a Simple Relation? Cosmic Ray Intensity vs. Solar Coronal Source Flux: Is There a Simple Relation?

May 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agusm..sh52a03u&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2001, abstract #SH52A-03

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1650 Solar Variability, 2104 Cosmic Rays, 2114 Energetic Particles, Heliospheric (7514)

Scientific paper

It was recently suggested by Lockwood [2001] that cosmic ray (CR) flux in the neutron monitor (NM) energy range is directly related to the solar coronal source flux, and can be reconstructed in the past. Here we show that this approach is oversimplified and can not be applied to CR reconstruction in the past. We reanalyse the reconstructed CR flux comparing it with the observed (Climax) NM flux during the last four solar cycles. While the details of CR time profile are reasonably reproduced by the Lockwood's regression model, the overall trend is questionable. The trend in the Climax NM count rate is about -0.02% per year while the Lockwood model series gives a much larger trend of about -0.13% per year. In the observed CR intensity, all maxima are roughly equally high while the depth of minima varies. However, in the model series, both maxima and minima are decreasing with time, leading to an extraneously large trend. This trend also implies a very high CR flux in early times. E.g., the model CR flux minimum in early 1900s is higher than recent CR maxima, although solar activity maxima were much higher during that time than present cycle minima. We have recently estimated the NM response to unmodulated GCR in case of no heliosphere. This unmodulated Climax NM count rate would be only about 16% higher than the actual count rate in the CR maximum year 1977. On the other hand, the model Climax NM count rate is 20% higher in the CR minimum year 1990 than in 1977, thus exceeding the unmodulated CR flux.

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