Using Heliospheric Imaging for Storm Forecasting - SMEI CME Observations as a Tool for Operational Forecasting at AFWA

Details Using Heliospheric Imaging for Storm Forecasting - SMEI CME Observations as a Tool for Operational Forecasting at AFWA Using Heliospheric Imaging for Storm Forecasting - SMEI CME Observations as a Tool for Operational Forecasting at AFWA

Dec 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufmsa41b..02w&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #SA41B-02

Statistics

2101 Coronal Mass Ejections (7513), 2111 Ejecta, Driver Gases, And Magnetic Clouds, 2788 Magnetic Storms And Substorms (7954), 7924 Forecasting (2722), 7954 Magnetic Storms (2788)

Scientific paper

Observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from heliospheric imagers such as the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) can lead to significant improvements in operational space weather forecasting. We are working with the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ingest SMEI all-sky imagery with appropriate tools to help forecasters improve their operational space weather forecasts. We describe two approaches: 1) Near- real time analysis of propagating CMEs from SMEI images alone combined with near-Sun observations of CME onsets and, 2) Using these calculations of speed as a mid-course correction to the HAFv2 solar wind model forecasts. HAFv2 became operational at AFWA in late 2006. The objective is to determine a set of practical procedures that the duty forecaster can use to update or correct a solar wind forecast using heliospheric imager data. SMEI observations can be used inclusively to make storm forecasts, as recently discussed in Webb et al. (Space Weather, in press, 2008). We have developed a point-and-click analysis tool for use with SMEI images and are working with AFWA to ensure that timely SMEI images are available for analyses. When a frontside solar eruption occurs, especially if within about 45 deg. of Sun center, a forecaster checks for an associated CME observed by a coronagraph within an appropriate time window. If found, especially if the CME is a halo type, the forecaster checks SMEI observations about a day later, depending on the apparent initial CME speed, for possibly associated CMEs. If one is found, then the leading edge is measured over several successive frames and an elongation-time plot constructed. A minimum of three data points, i.e., over 3-4 orbits or about 6 hours, are necessary for such a plot. Using the solar source location and onset time of the CME from, e.g., SOHO observations, and assuming radial propagation, a distance-time relation is calculated and extrapolated to the 1 AU distance. As shown by Webb et al., the storm onset time is then expected to be about 3 hours after this 1 AU arrival time (AT). The prediction program is updated as more SMEI data become available. Currently when an appropriate solar event occurs, AFWA routinely runs the HAFv2 model to make a forecast of the shock and ejecta arrival times at Earth. SMEI data can be used to improve this prediction. The HAFv2 model can produce synthetic sky maps of predicted CME brightness for comparison with SMEI images. The forecaster uses SMEI imagery to observe and track the CME. The forecaster then measures the CME location and speed using the SMEI imagery and the HAFv2 synthetic sky maps. After comparing the SMEI and HAFv2 results, the forecaster can adjust a key input to HAFv2, such as the initial speed of the disturbance at the Sun or the mid-course speed. The forecaster then iteratively runs HAFv2 until the observed and forecast sky maps match. The final HAFv2 solution becomes the new forecast. When the CME/shock arrives at (or does not reach) Earth, the forecaster verifies the forecast and updates the forecast skill statistics. Eventually, we plan to develop a more automated version of this procedure.

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