Forecasting the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances produced by it

Details Forecasting the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances produced by it Forecasting the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances produced by it

Apr 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009cosre..47...95e&link_type=abstract

Cosmic Research, Volume 47, Issue 2, pp.95-113

Computer Science

5

96.25.Qr

Scientific paper

A brief review is given of contemporary approaches to solving the problem of medium-term forecast of the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind (SW) and of the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by it. At the present time, two promising models of calculating the velocity of quasi-stationary SW at the Earth’s orbit are realized. One model is the semi-empirical model of Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) which allows one to calculate the dependence V( t) of SW velocity at the Earth’s orbit using measured values of the photospheric magnetic field. This model is based on calculation of the local divergence f S of magnetic field lines. The second model is semi-empirical model by Eselevich-Fainshtein-Rudenko (EFR). It is based on calculation in a potential approximation of the area of foot points on the solar surface of open magnetic tubes (sources of fast quasistationary SW). The new Bd-technology is used in these calculations, allowing one to calculate instantaneous distributions of the magnetic field above the entire visible surface of the Sun. Using predicted V( t) profiles, one can in EFR model calculate also the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by quasi-stationary SW. This intensity is expressed through the K p index. In this paper the EFR model is discussed in detail. Some examples of epignosis and real forecast of V( t) and K p ( t) are discussed. A comparison of the results of applying these two models for the SW velocity forecasting is presented.

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