Celestial optical flash rate - Predictions and observations

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Flare Stars, Gamma Rays, Light Emission, Meteoroids, Flash

Scientific paper

This paper presents calculations which predict the rate of short-duration optical flashes that are caused by gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), flare stars, or meteors. In addition, this paper presents the results of eight experiments which measure the event rate of short-duration optical flashes. These results are used as a control experiment to test whether the three flash images found by Schaefer (1981) and Schaefer et al. (1984) are caused by background flash events. With techniques identical to the original flash search, a probability of about 10 to the -5th is found that the three flash images are unrelated to GRBs. The implications of these results for the various flash-search instruments currently being developed are then discussed. For optical flash searches at wavelengths shorter than roughly 6000 A, the event rate from flare stars should be much greater than the event rate from GRBs.

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