A Statistical Test of Correlations and Periodicities in the Geological Records

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy

Scientific paper

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Cratering, Mass Extinction, Periodicities, Cratering, Mass Extinction, Periodicities

Scientific paper

Matsumoto & Kubotani argued that there is a positive and statistically significant correlation between cratering and mass extinction. This argument is critically examined by adopting a method of Ertel used by Matsumoto & Kubotani but by applying it more directly to the extinction and cratering records. It is shown that on the null-hypothesis of random distribution of crater ages, the observed correlation has a probability of occurrence of 13%. However, when large craters are excluded whose ages agree with the times of peaks of extinction rate of marine fauna, one obtains a negative correlation. This result strongly indicates that mass extinction are not due to accumulation of impacts but due to isolated gigantic impacts.

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