Seismic activity triggered by the 1999 Izmit earthquake and its implications for the assessment of future seismic risk

Details Seismic activity triggered by the 1999 Izmit earthquake and its implications for the assessment of future seismic risk Seismic activity triggered by the 1999 Izmit earthquake and its implications for the assessment of future seismic risk

Jul 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001geoji.146f...1p&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Journal International, Volume 146, Issue 1, pp. F1-F7.

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Faults, Focal Mechanisms, Izmit Earthquake, Marmara Sea, Seismic Activity, Stress Change

Scientific paper

A serious question has remained as to the location of the western end of the main rupture zone associated with the 1999 Izmit, Turkey, earthquake. A clear answer to this question is extremely important for the assessment of future seismic risk in the eastern Marmara Sea region, Turkey. In this paper we show an effective approach to answering this important question, unifying different kinds of information such as seismic activity, focal mechanism solutions and stress changes caused by the main shock into a clear image. We first point out that the major moment release is 1.6×1020Nm and covered the area between 29.7°E and 30.5°E and we then claim that the enhanced seismic activity after the main shock in the eastern Marmara Sea region should be regarded as activity triggered by the increase of stress, rather than as aftershock activity along the ruptured zone. We propose three fault segments with an average stress increase on each in the western extension of the main-shock rupture zone as potential sites for future large earthquakes, namely (i) the 50km long Yalova-Hersek segment (0.45MPa), (ii) the NW-SE-trending right-lateral strike-slip fault known as the Princes Islands segment (0.18MPa), and (iii) the Çinarcik-Yalova segment (0.09MPa) characterized by normal faulting, which was subject to rupture in 1963.

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