Hercules X-1 - A random walk noise model for the 35-day turn-ons

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics

Scientific paper

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Binary Stars, Noise Spectra, Periodic Variations, Radiant Flux Density, Random Walk, Stellar Models, X Ray Sources, Stellar Rotation, Stellar Spectra

Scientific paper

An empirical model is presented describing the turn-on times of Hercules X-1. The two basic assumptions are: (1) the principal 35-d clock is not variable but strictly synchronized to the 1d.7 binary cycle using exactly 20.5 times the binary period (34d.85), and (2) the actual separation between two successive turn-ons is influenced by random walk noise such that it may be either 20.0, 20.5 or 21.0 binary cycles selected at random with equal statistical probabilities. The authors show that this model is consistent with previously observed turn-ons and with the close relationship between the periodic phenomena of eclipses, dips and turn-ons as found by many observers. The authors propose a method of computing the probability for the occurrence of a future turn-on at a particular time.

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