Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Sep 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009jgra..11409104q&link_type=abstract
Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 114, Issue A9, CiteID A09104
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
1
Interplanetary Physics: Interplanetary Shocks, Space Weather: Forecasting (2722), Interplanetary Physics: Cosmic Rays, Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy: Flares, Interplanetary Physics: Energetic Particles (7514)
Scientific paper
Real-time prediction of the arrival times at Earth of shocks is very important for space weather research. Recently, various models for shock propagation are used to forecast the shock arriving times (SATs) with information of initial coronal shock and flare from near real-time radio and X-ray data. In this paper, we add the use of solar energetic particles (SEP) observation to improve the shock arrival time (SAT) prediction. High-energy SEPs originating from flares move to the Earth much faster than the shocks related to the same flares. We develop an SAT prediction model by combining a well-known shock propagation model, STOA, and the analysis of SEPs detected at Earth. We demonstrate that the SAT predictions are improved by the new model with the help of 38-53 keV electron SEP observations. In particular, the correct prediction to false alarm ratio is improved significantly.
Qin Gan
Rassoul Hamid K.
Zhang Minghui
No associations
LandOfFree
Prediction of the shock arrival time with SEP observations does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.
If you have personal experience with Prediction of the shock arrival time with SEP observations, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Prediction of the shock arrival time with SEP observations will most certainly appreciate the feedback.
Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1193063