Modeling the total solar irradiance: recent progress and new questions

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Irradiance: Solar

Scientific paper

We report on the recent results from the San Fernando Observatory (SFO) in our efforts to understand the sources of solar irradiance variability. The results are based on the SFO's ongoing full disk photometric images program, which has now accumulated about 1-1/2 solar cycles of data. The results are in three parts: (1) statistics of solar active regions and their possible variation during the solar cycle; (2) modeling of the total solar irradiance using the photometry of both individual features and the entire disk; and (3) the relative contribution of bright features to increases in total solar irradiance. Our main conclusions are, respectively: solar active regions change in ways which affect their use in total irradiance modeling; the solar cycle change in total irradiance is dominated by changes in the line blanketing; and that large faculae dominate the solar cycle in irradiance. Because resolved absolute photometry of the solar disk has not yet been carried out, all of these results are based on regression analyses. We discuss what progress we can still make with such analyses, and close with a prediction of what future absolute solar photometry may tell us.

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