Computer Science
Scientific paper
Sep 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003esasp.535..165u&link_type=abstract
In: Solar variability as an input to the Earth's environment. International Solar Cycle Studies (ISCS) Symposium, 23 - 28 June 2
Computer Science
Sunspot Activity, Solar Cycle
Scientific paper
Some periods before 1850 are poorly covered by sunspot observations. In addition to apparent observational gaps, there are also periods when there are only few sparse daily sunspot observations during a long time. It is important to estimate the reliability of the monthly/yearly mean values obtained from sparse daily data. Here we suggest a new method to estimate the reliability of individual monthly means. The method is based on comparing the actual sparse data (sample population) to the well-measured sunspot data in 1850-1996 (reference population) and employs two assumptions: (I) statistical properties of sunspot activity are similar throughout the entire period and (II) individual sparse daily observations are distributed randomly in time. First, for each sample population we found months in the reference population containing the same data set and then constructed the statistical distribution of the corresponding monthly means. From this distribution we calculated the weighted mean and its standard error which gives the uncertainty of a monthly mean sunspot number reconstructed from sparse daily observation. The simple arithmetic mean can be adequately applied for months which contain more than 4-5 evenly distributed daily observations. However, the reliability of monthly means for less covered months should be estimated more carefully. Using the estimated monthly values, we can also calculate the weighted annual sunspot numbers.
Kovaltsov Gennady A.
Mursula Kalevi
Usoskin Ilya G.
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