Solar and Geomagnetic Precursor Predictions

Details Solar and Geomagnetic Precursor Predictions Solar and Geomagnetic Precursor Predictions

May 1997

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1997spd....28.1404s&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #28, #14.04; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 29, p.918

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Scientific paper

Recently a NASA supported, NOAA SEC panel of experts predicted that the next solar cycle would peak in early 2000 at a sunspot number value of 160 +/- 30, or equivalently an F10.7 radio flux of 205 +/- 30. This value was arrived at by group consensus, and close to both the geomagnetic precursor and solar precursor prediction values. We discuss: 1)The historical origin for precursor indices; 2) The physical basis for the solar and geomagnetic precursors.; 3) How big are the differences between these two techniques, and what do they mean?; 4) From the above, the listener may be able to form a better picture of the next cycle. This work is supported by NASA.

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