Forecasting the Bayes factor of a future observation

Details Forecasting the Bayes factor of a future observation Forecasting the Bayes factor of a future observation

2007-03-05

arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0703063v2

Mon.Not.Roy.Astron.Soc.378:819-824,2007

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

7 pages, 2 figures; minor changes, updated references. Matches version accepted by MNRAS

Scientific paper

10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.11861.x

I present a new procedure to forecast the Bayes factor of a future observation by computing the Predictive Posterior Odds Distribution (PPOD). This can assess the power of future experiments to answer model selection questions and the probability of the outcome, and can be helpful in the context of experiment design. As an illustration, I consider a central quantity for our understanding of the cosmological concordance model, namely the scalar spectral index of primordial perturbations, n_S. I show that the Planck satellite has over 90% probability of gathering strong evidence against n_S = 1, thus conclusively disproving a scale-invariant spectrum. This result is robust with respect to a wide range of choices for the prior on n_S.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Forecasting the Bayes factor of a future observation does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Forecasting the Bayes factor of a future observation, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Forecasting the Bayes factor of a future observation will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-113304