Have We Reached a Maximum Astronomical Research Output?

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy

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Data Analysis And Techniques

Scientific paper

The US astronomical research output during the past 50 yr has been growing at 6 times the population increase and we wonder whether that ratio can continue. I counted pages of the AJ and ApJ for the past 50 yr, and corrected them for changes in format, foreign input, online contributions, and population increases. For the combined two journals, the American astronomical output is still increasing at a current 128 pages per million people. The same is true for UK contributions to the MNRAS, except that those lag behind the US by 10 yr. For Europe I did not want to dilute the contributions in A&A from the major producers with those of the countries still developing major astronomical centers. Therefore I counted pages for France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands (FGIN) only. However, Europeans still publish many of their articles in MNRAS, in particular, and ApJ. Counting FGIN articles in all four journals showed a steady rise but with a 12 yr lag behind the US. We conclude that the astronomical research rates in all three regions have not yet reached a maximum.

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