Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Oct 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010dps....42.1323d&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, DPS meeting #42, #13.23; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 42, p.1057
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
It is well known that the perihelion distance of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) varies with time as a consequence of dynamical mechanisms, such as resonances and close approaches with planets. As a consequence, NEOs have a complex temperature history (due to the radiative heating by the Sun), non-trivially correlated to the present orbits.
Recently, space missions have been proposed to return samples of prebiotic organic compounds, which are likely to be found on NEOs of primitive types. Some of these organic compounds break up at relatively moderate temperatures. Using a model of the orbital evolution of NEOs and appropriate thermal models, we studied the temperature history of (101955) 1999 RQ36 (the primary target of the mission OSIRIS-REx selected in the program New Frontier of NASA) and four other potential sample return targets.
Initial results suggest that the surface temperature excursions in some of these objects could affect the stability of some organic compounds (e.g. there is 50% probability that the surface of these objects has experienced temperatures >500 K). However, the temperature drops rapidly with depth. For example, there is indication that the material at a depth of 3-5 cm has experienced temperatures 100 degrees below those of the surface.
Delbo' Marco
Michel Pascal
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