Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Oct 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010dps....42.0405h&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, DPS meeting #42, #4.05; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 42, p.948
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
Lunar crater counts at various landing sites show that the lunar cratering rate was declining from about 3.8 to 3.3 Gy ago, as found independently by different workers [1,2,3]. This means saturation cratering was reached in much shorter intervals around 3.8 Gy ago (and probably 3.9-4.1 Gy) than today. This creates a critical period in terms of surface sample properties.
Geometric considerations alone show that as crater densities approach saturation levels, the depth of pulverization, reworking, and regolith production increases explosively [4,5]. Thus, while some 5 to 20 meters of regolith have been produced on mare surface in the last 3.5 Gy, such depths would have been reworked many times over in intervals as short as 30 My at times around 3.8 Gy and probably before - whether a Nice-style cataclysm happened or not.
The conclusion is that rocks placed on the surfaces of airless inner solar system worlds before 3.8-4.1 Gy ago have much lower probability of surviving intact until today, than rocks delivered after 3.8 Gy ago. This statement explains some properties of rock collections from surface sites of different ages.
References: [1] Hartmann, W.K. 1972. Astrophysics and Space Sci. 12:48-64. [2] Neukum, Gerhard 1983 Habilitation Dissertation, Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Munich. [3] Neukum, G., Boris Ivanov, and W. K. Hartmann 2001. Space Sci. Rev., 96:55-86. [4] Hartmann, W. K. 1980. In Proc. Conf. Lunar Highlands Crust, ed. J. Papike and R. Merrill. (N.Y.: Pergamon Press), pp. 155-171. [5] Hartmann, W. K. 2003. Meteoritics and Planet. Sci. 38:579-593.
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