Tidal triggering of earthquakes prior to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw 9.1)

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Geodesy And Gravity: Ocean/Earth/Atmosphere/Hydrosphere/Cryosphere Interactions (0762, 1218, 3319, 4550), Seismology: Earthquake Dynamics (1242), Seismology: Earthquake Interaction, Forecasting, And Prediction (1217, 1242, 4315), Seismology: Seismicity And Tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242), Seismology: Subduction Zones (1207, 1219, 1240)

Scientific paper

I observe highly significant tidal triggering of earthquakes prior to the 2011 Mw 9.1 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Strong statistical correlations between tidally-induced stresses and earthquake occurrence times are identified in the northern part of the Tohoku-Oki source region, where the mainshock rupture initiated, in the several to ten years before the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The tidal phase distribution of earthquakes in this period exhibits a peak where the shear stress is at its maximum to promote failure. On the other hand, no significant tidal correlation is found after the Tohoku-Oki mainshock. These observations suggest that tidal triggering occurs over a decade-long period preceding the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, and the initial rupture site of this event is already critically stressed in this precursory stage.

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