The Unusual Minimum of Cycle 23: Observations and Interpretation

Details The Unusual Minimum of Cycle 23: Observations and Interpretation The Unusual Minimum of Cycle 23: Observations and Interpretation

May 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009spd....40.2403m&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #40, #24.03; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 41, p.861

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Scientific paper

The current minimum of cycle 23 is unusual in its long duration, the very low level to which Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has fallen, and the small flux of the open polar fields. The deep minimum of TSI seems to be related to an unprecedented dearth of polar faculae, and hence to the small amount of open flux. Based upon surface flux transport models it has been suggested that the causes of these phenomena may be an unusually vigorous meridional flow, or even a deviation from Joy's law resulting in smaller Joy angles than usual for emerging flux in cycle 23. There is also the possibility of a connection with the recently inferred emergence in polar regions of bipoles that systematically defy Hale's law.
Much speculation has been going on as to the consequences of this exceptional minimum: are we entering another global minimum, is this the end of the 80 year period of exceptionally high solar activity, or is this just a statistical hiccup? Dynamo simulations are underway that may help answer this question. As an aside it must be mentioned that the current minimum of TSI puts an upper limit in the TSI input for global climate simulations during the Maunder minimum, and that a possible decrease in future solar activity will result in a very small but not insignificant reduction in the pace of global warming.

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