Have We Entered a 21st Century Prolonged Minimum of Solar Activity? Updated Implications of a 1987 Prediction

Details Have We Entered a 21st Century Prolonged Minimum of Solar Activity? Updated Implications of a 1987 Prediction Have We Entered a 21st Century Prolonged Minimum of Solar Activity? Updated Implications of a 1987 Prediction

May 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009spd....40.1108s&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #40, #11.08; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 41, p.826

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Fairbridge and Shirley (1987) predicted that a new prolonged minimum of solar activity would be underway by the year 2013 (Solar Physics 110, 191). While it is much too early to tell if this prediction will be fully realized, recent observations document a striking reduction in the Sun's general level of activity. While other forecasts of reduced future activity levels on decadal time scales have appeared, the Fairbridge-Shirley (FS) prediction is unique in pinpointing the current epoch. We are unaware of any forecast method that shows a better correspondence with the actual behavior of the Sun to this point. The FS prediction was based on the present-day recurrence of two physical indicators that were correlated in time with the occurrence of the Wolf, Sporer, and Maunder Minima. The amplitude of the inertial revolution of the axis of symmetry of the Sun's orbital motion about the solar system barycenter, and the direction in space of that axis, each bear a relationship to the occurrence of the prolonged minima of the historic record. The FS prediction appeared before the importance of solar meridional flows was generally appreciated, and before the existence and role of the tachocline was suspected. We will update and restate some of the physical implications of the FS results, along with those of some more recent investigations, particularly with reference to orbit-spin coupling hypotheses (Shirley, 2006: M.N.R.A.S. 368, 280). New investigations combining and integrating modern dynamo models with physical solutions describing key aspects of the variability of the solar motion may lead to significant advances in our ability to forecast future changes in the Sun. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the resources of the author. No part of this work was performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract from NASA.

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