On the problem of radiation danger at prolonged manned space flights

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy

Scientific paper

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Long Term Effects, Manned Space Flight, Radiation Hazards, Solar Cycles, Solar Radiation, Solar Activity Effects, Solar Cosmic Rays, Solar Flux, Solar Protons, Sunspot Cycle

Scientific paper

The forecasting of minimum levels of solar cosmic ray emission is discussed, with the aim of predicting periods in which radiation danger to astronauts may lessen. In particular, it is suggested that solar proton flux, clustered about solar activity maxima, may provide a means of determining for several decades in advance the periods when prolonged manned space flights could be undertaken with minimal hazards. An analysis of the even and odd 11-year solar activity cycles and the hypothesis of a 180-year cycle lead to the conclusion that a substantial decline in solar activity, extending to the year 2000, may be expected.

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