The Prediction of the Motion of Atens, Apollos and Amors over Long Intervals of Time

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

Equations of motion of 930 Atens, Apollos and Amors (AAA) were integrated 300,000 years forward using RA15 Everhart method (Everhart, 1974). The Osterwinter model of Solar System was used (Osterwinter and Cohen, 1972). The differences in mean anomaly between unchanged and changed orbits were calculated. The changed orbits were constructed by adding or subtracting to the starting orbital elements one after the other errors of determination of orbital elements. When the differences in mean anomaly were greater than 360 deg. then computations were stopped. In almost all cases after about 1000 years in forwards or backwards integrations differences in mean anomaly between neighbors orbits growth rapidly. It denotes that it is impossible to predict behavior of asteroids outside this time. This time I have called time of stability.

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