Statistical aspects of major (intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin during the past 49 hurricane seasons (1950-1998): Implications for the current season

Details Statistical aspects of major (intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin during the past 49 hurricane seasons (1950-1998): Implications for the current season Statistical aspects of major (intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin during the past 49 hurricane seasons (1950-1998): Implications for the current season

Oct 1999

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1999georl..26.2957w&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 26, Issue 19, p. 2957-2960

Mathematics

Probability

11

Oceanography: Physical: Air/Sea Interactions, Oceanography: General: Climate And Interannual Variability, Global Change: Climate Dynamics

Scientific paper

Statistical aspects of major (intense) hurricanes, those of category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale (e.g., having a maximum sustained wind speed of >=50 m s-1), in the Atlantic basin during the interval of 1950-1998 are investigated in relation to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle and to the postulated ``more'' versus ``less'' activity modes for intense hurricane activity. Based on Poisson statistics, when the hurricane season is simply classified as ``non-El Niño-related'' (NENR), the probability of having three or more intense hurricanes is ~53%, while it is only ~14% when it is classified as ``El Niño-related'' (ENR). Including the activity levels (``more'' versus ``less''), the probability of having three or more intense hurricanes is computed to be ~71% for the ``more-NENR'' season, 30% for the ``less-NENR'' season, 17% for the ``more-ENR'' season, and 12% for the ``less-ENR'' season. Because the 1999 hurricane season is believed to be a ``more-NENR'' season, the number of intense hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin should be above average in number, probably about 4+/-1 or higher.

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