Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Dec 2004
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004georl..3124601c&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 31, Issue 24, CiteID L24601
Mathematics
Logic
1
Policy Sciences: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Policy Sciences: Project Evaluation, Public Issues: Science Policy, Volcanology: General Or Miscellaneous, Information Related To Geologic Time: Cenozoic
Scientific paper
Yucca Mountain is a potential repository site for high-level radioactive waste. We examine claims that the frequency of future basaltic dike intersection could be 1 × 10-6/yr or higher (i.e., on average, one penetration every million yrs). These claims fail simple tests at four time scales. Spatial-temporal models that predict intrusion frequencies >2 × 10-7/yr are overly pessimistic because no dikes have been found in the 13 Myr-old potential repository footprint. More realistic models are developed by considering this non-detection of dikes and by applying probabilistic hazard assessments based on known patterns of Pleistocene volcanism. Using a hazard assessment code, we estimate the frequency of dike intersection at 5.4 × 10-8/yr with an upper 95% confidence bound of 9.8 × 10-8/yr.
Abramson Robert L.
Coleman Neil M.
Marsh Bruce D.
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