Supply and demand for PhD physicists, 1975 to 1986

Details Supply and demand for PhD physicists, 1975 to 1986 Supply and demand for PhD physicists, 1975 to 1986

Mar 1978

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1978aipc...39...52g&link_type=abstract

AIP Conference Proceedings, Volume 39, pp. 52-86 (1978).

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

2

Science And Society, Education

Scientific paper

An extrapolation of trends in doctoral supply leads to the conclusion that the number of new entrants into the physics/astronomy labor force (estimated to be 19,000 in 1975) will drop slowly from its present value of about 950 to about 750 in 1986. The components of demand are estimated separately: The number of positions resulting from death and retirement in the labor force is now about 1% of the total (180 positions); the percentage will increase to 1.6% (320 positions) by 1986.* The number of openings resulting from mobility out of the field by those in secure positions being attracted to other fields is estimated to be not less than 150 per year. The number of positions in traditional physics vacated by non-PhDs and filled by PhDs is expected to decline slowly from an estimated 200-300 in 1976 to 150-200 in 1986. The growth of the field is estimated to have been 1 to 1.5% per year in recent years and to continued growth of 1% per year is projected.
We conclude that the demand in traditional physics and astronomy will about match the supply of new entrants into the labor force by the mid-1980s. However, throughout the coming decade there will continue to be imbalances between supply and demand in specific sub-fields and employment sectors. And the physics community will continue to age. In particular:
The number of tenure openings per year in the 200 PhD-granting physics/astronomy departments is expected to be no greater than 100 in 1986; thus only about 15% of the new entrants into the physics labor force in the early 1980s are expected to attain permanent positions in doctoral-granting departments.
The demand for those who work in theoretical physics is expected to remain well below the supply of new entrants trained as theorists.
The demand for those who work in theoretical physics is expected to remain well below the supply of new entrants trained as theorists.
The average age of the physics community is now increasing at from 0.35 to 0.5 year/year. The rate is expected to decline slowly to 0.1 to 0.2 year/year by 1985.
The yearly output of experimental neclear and particle physicists is dropping so sharply that the yearly demand may exceed the number of new entrants by the early 1980s.

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