Modeling the arrival at Earth of the interplanetary shock following the 12 May 1997 solar event using HAFv2 and 3-D MHD HHMS models

Details Modeling the arrival at Earth of the interplanetary shock following the 12 May 1997 solar event using HAFv2 and 3-D MHD HHMS models Modeling the arrival at Earth of the interplanetary shock following the 12 May 1997 solar event using HAFv2 and 3-D MHD HHMS models

May 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008spwea...605006s&link_type=abstract

Space Weather, Volume 6, Issue 5, CiteID S05006

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

4

Ionosphere: Ionospheric Irregularities, Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy: Flares, Space Weather: Forecasting (2722), Space Weather: Models

Scientific paper

The 12 May 1997 solar event is used to demonstrate the improvements that have been made in recent years in the accuracy of predicting, in the operational environment, the time of arrival at Earth of solar-caused interplanetary shocks. This event provides a simple test case because it was both well isolated in time from other events and well documented, with the observation of a large flare (in optical and X-ray), a large halo CME, metric type-II radio burst and near-Earth solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field data. The Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry model (version 2: HAFv2) near-real-time prediction gave an error of 31 h. Because the accuracy of predicted Sun-to-Earth transit times of such shocks depends both on the model and our ability to determine the proper inputs from available observations, we reexamined the predictions made for the 12 May event using inputs that could have been available in near-real-time, both with HAFv2 and a second, ensemble-partnered solar wind prediction model, the 3-D MHD Hybrid Heliospheric Model System (HHMS). We use updated methods of estimating the initial shock velocity (from Smith et al., 2005b) and examine the influence of the background solar wind. This reexamination reduced the error from the original 31 h to less than 4 h. Achieving near-real-time accuracies to this level would greatly enhance operations of technologies such as electrical power grids, satellite systems, and polar flight communications.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Modeling the arrival at Earth of the interplanetary shock following the 12 May 1997 solar event using HAFv2 and 3-D MHD HHMS models does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Modeling the arrival at Earth of the interplanetary shock following the 12 May 1997 solar event using HAFv2 and 3-D MHD HHMS models, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Modeling the arrival at Earth of the interplanetary shock following the 12 May 1997 solar event using HAFv2 and 3-D MHD HHMS models will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1077566