Other
Scientific paper
Oct 1994
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1994georl..21.2295k&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters (ISSN 0094-8276), vol. 21, no. 21, 2295-2298
Other
15
Air Water Interactions, Atmospheric General Circulation Models, Carbon Dioxide Concentration, Global Warming, Climate Change, Pressure Oscillations, Rain, Tropical Meteorology, Water Vapor
Scientific paper
The impact of a CO2-induced global warming on El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like fluctuations in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM is analyzed using two multi-century experiments. In the 4xCO2 experiment, CO2 increases by a factor of four in the first 140 years and then remains constant at 4xCO2 for another 360 years; in the control experiment, CO2 remains constant at 1xCO2 for 1000 years. The standard deviation of tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) fluctuations (7 deg N-7 deg S, 173 deg E-120 deg W; 2 to 15 year timescales) is 24% lower in the 4xCO2 experiment than in the control experiment; for the model's Southern Oscillation Index, a 19% decrease occurs, whereas for central tropical Pacific rainfall, a 3% increase occurs. An important feature of the control simulation is the internally generated modulation of varability on a multi-century timescales, which is comparable in magnitude to the changes occurring with 4xCO2. We conclude that despite an order 5 K warming of the tropical Pacific, and order 50% increase in time-mean atmospheric water vapor under 4xCO2 conditions, ENSO-like SST fluctuations in the coupled model do not intensify, but rather decrease slightly in amplitude.
Knutson Thomas R.
Manabe Syukuro
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