Prediction of solar energetic particle event histories using real-time particle and solar wind measurements

Details Prediction of solar energetic particle event histories using real-time particle and solar wind measurements Prediction of solar energetic particle event histories using real-time particle and solar wind measurements

Nov 1978

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1978omap....1q....r&link_type=abstract

In AGARD Operational Modelling of the Aerospace Propagation Environ., Vol. 1 and 2 13 p (SEE N79-18094 09-31)

Computer Science

Energetic Particles, Ionospheric Disturbances, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Flux, Solar Terrestrial Interactions, Solar Wind Velocity, Geomagnetism, Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, Ionospheric Propagation, Radio Waves, Solar Cycles

Scientific paper

The comparatively well-ordered magnetic structure in the solar corona during the decline of Solar Cycle 20 revealed a characteristic dependence of solar energetic particle injection upon heliographic longitude. When analyzed using solar wind mapping of the large scale interplanetary magnetic field line connection from the corona to the Earth, particle fluxes display an approximately exponential dependence on heliographic longitude. Since variations in the solar wind velocity (and hence the coronal connection longitude) can severely distort the simple coronal injection profile, the use of real-time solar wind velocity measurements can be of great aid in predicting the decay of solar particle events. Although such exponential injection profiles are commonplace during 1973-1975, they have also been identified earlier in Solar Cycle 20, and hence this structure may be present during the rise and maximum of the cycle, but somewhat obscured by greater temporal variations in particle injection.

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