The Challenge of Predicting the Occurrence of Intense Storms

Details The Challenge of Predicting the Occurrence of Intense Storms The Challenge of Predicting the Occurrence of Intense Storms

Jun 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006japa...27..237s&link_type=abstract

Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy, Volume 27, Issue 2-3, pp. 237-242

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

2

Sun: Coronal Mass Ejection, Geomagnetic Storms, Space Weather

Scientific paper

Geomagnetic super-storms of October and November 2003 are compared in order to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of geomagnetic storms. Although these superstorms (DST < -300 nT) are associated with high speed CMEs, their DST indices show large variation. The most intense storm of November 20, 2003 (DSt˜ - 472 nT) had its source in a comparatively small active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare, while the others had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. An attempt has been made to implement a logistic regression model for the prediction of the occurrence of intense/superintense geomagnetic storms. The model parameters (regression coefficients) were estimated from a training data-set extracted from a data-set of 64 geo-effective CMEs observed during 1996-2002. The results indicate that logistic regression models can be effectively used for predicting the occurrence of major geomagnetic storms from a set of solar and interplanetary factors. The model validation shows that 100% of the intense storms (-200 nT < DSt < -100 nT) and only 50% of the super-intense (DST < -200 nT) storms could be correctly predicted.

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