Solar Cycle 24 and the Solar Dynamo

Details Solar Cycle 24 and the Solar Dynamo Solar Cycle 24 and the Solar Dynamo

May 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007aas...210.9204p&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society Meeting 210, #92.04; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 39, p.209

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

1

Scientific paper

We will discuss the polar field precursor method for solar activity prediction, which predicts cycle 24 will be significantly lower than recent activity cycles, and some new ideas rejuvenating Babcock's shallow surface dynamo. The polar field precursor method is based on Babcock and Leighton's dynamo models wherein the polar field at solar minimum plays a major role in generating the next cycle's toroidal field and sunspots. Thus, by examining the polar fields of the Sun near solar minimum, a forecast for the next cycle's activity is obtained. With the current low value for the Sun's polar fields, this method predicts solar cycle 24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 135 ± 35 (2 σ), in the 2012-2013 timeframe (equivalent to smoothed Rz near 80 ± 35 [2 σ]). One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. We discuss unusual behavior in the Sun's polar fields that support this prediction. Normally, the solar precursor method is consistent with the geomagnetic precursor method, wherein geomagnetic variations are thought to be a good measure of the Sun's polar field strength. Because of the unusual polar field, the Earth does not appear to be currently bathed in the Sun's extended polar field (the interplanetary field), hence negating the primal cause behind the geomagnetic precursor technique. We also discuss how percolation may support Babcock's original shallow solar dynamo. In this process ephemeral regions from the solar magnetic carpet, guided by shallow surface fields, may collect to form pores and sunspots.

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