Testing and validating the C/NOFS models that predict ionospheric densities and scintillation

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2400 Ionosphere (6929), 2427 Ionosphere/Atmosphere Interactions (0335), 2447 Modeling And Forecasting

Scientific paper

The Air Force Research Laboratory has models to predict the ambient ionosphere and scintillation onset, which have been developed for the Communication / Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) mission. The C/NOFS satellite is due to be launched in 2007 into a low inclination orbit. The C/NOFS models have been tested and validated using data from ground instruments and other satellites. Ion drift measurements at the magnetic equator were used as input for some of these validation runs. Close to the equator, the density model usually shows satisfactory agreement with the ground truth data. The variation of density as a function of latitude, however, is not always as well represented by the model. Several factors contribute to this problem. The most important factors might be the lack of knowledge of the neutral wind and composition. The validation studies clearly demonstrate the need for improved measurements of ionospheric and thermospheric parameters in the equatorial regions. The C/NOFS satellite and related observations from the ground and from other satellites will hopefully provide these measurements and greatly enhance our predictive capability.

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