Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986-2005)

Details Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986-2005) Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986-2005)

May 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006georl..3310805k&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 10, CiteID L10805

Other

43

Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Tropical Meteorology

Scientific paper

The recent destructive Atlantic hurricane seasons and several recent publications have sparked debate over whether warming tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are causing more intense, longer-lived tropical cyclones. This paper investigates worldwide tropical cyclone frequency and intensity to determine trends in activity over the past twenty years during which there has been an approximate 0.2°-0.4°C warming of SSTs. The data indicate a large increasing trend in tropical cyclone intensity and longevity for the North Atlantic basin and a considerable decreasing trend for the Northeast Pacific. All other basins showed small trends, and there has been no significant change in global net tropical cyclone activity. There has been a small increase in global Category 4-5 hurricanes from the period 1986-1995 to the period 1996-2005. Most of this increase is likely due to improved observational technology. These findings indicate that other important factors govern intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones besides SSTs.

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