Cosmic Rays, Forbush Decreases, Solar Activity Effects, Solar Flares, Radiant Flux Density, Solar Cycles, Solar Wind, Time Measurement, Time Series Analysis, Variations
Transient Forbush decreases in galactic cosmic ray intensity have generally been linked to interplanetary shocks and solar flares. However, Duggal and Pomerantz (1977) have concluded that the majority of transient intensity variations of galactic cosmic rays cannot be assigned directly to specific solar flares. The object of the present paper is to show that the observations of Duggal and Pomerantz are in fact consistent with the solar flare origin of most transient cosmic ray reductions (i.e., with the solar flare hypothesis). The consistency of the Duggal-Pomerantz observations with the flare hypothesis is demonstrated on the basis of a statistical model of modulation which reproduces the essential features of their observations. In response to the present analysis (by Parker), Duggal and Pomerantz have presented additional arguments to the effect that the majority of transient intensity modifications (not necessarily Forbush decreases) during the period 1964-1974 were indeed related to the central meridian passage of active centers rather than to any other visible solar feature.
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